Is this a turning point in Egypt?
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In my sojourns abroad I have become good friends with a few Egyptians. One among them stands out in this instance as he loved to talk politics. A born activist. Let’s call him Amun. I was kinda worried about his safety for precisely this reason. Well I got a couple emails from him. He and his family are fine. I learned so much from the communication which just highlights once again how important local knowledge is. I am sure people have been watching Anderson Cooper get his but kicked, I mean the news and reading the newspapers and blog posts about ‘lessons’ (like what? people are fed up with bad government? *yawn*) from Egypt especially with reference to twitter or inequality and unemployment. See a nice rebuttal of some of the dumbest comments here.
What struck me about Amun’s emails was what he emphasised. His views are very different and detailed compared to what the so-called experts have been saying. A few things stood out in his emails.
Egypt is a society in which honour is very important. Many of the top brass in the military do not want to force Mubarak out and humiliate him. To complicate matters significantly, Mubarak will not step down voluntarily. He said it himself, ‘I have a Ph.D in obstinacy.’ Many Egyptians, even those on the street, do not want to embarrass Mubarak either. Not because they love him, but know that doing so will make it harder to achieve his exit. Moreover, the key issue is not Mubarak. It is about the Mubarak way of government. It is not clear how the political system is going to be reformed. The constitution even bans the formations of political parties! Additionally, the people angling to manage the much vaunted ‘transition’ (except El Baradei who many people see as ‘foreign’ and out of touch) are cut from the Mubarak cloth.
Next, the regime is not simply a military regime. It is an oligarchical economic system in which key families control a disproportionate amount of the wealth of the country. The military protects these people and vice versa. Quelle surprise. These people are in favour of the status quo. Whatever happens, transforming the economic situation will not be easy or quick.
Egyptians are also watching the world, as the world is watching Egypt. To say the Obama Administration is not responding well to the crisis well is an understatement. At first, the muted response was seen by Egyptians as support for Mubarak. Which in light of Obama’s address to the Muslim world in June 2009 was seen as a slap in the face. Then, the President seemed to do a complete 180 and called on Mubarak to go. This was interpreted as an attempt to place themselves on the right side of history when the status quo became untenable. Moreover, it made it harder for Mubarak to save face. There were still others who felt that the U.S. should just keep out altogether.
Then there is the media. Why did the foreign news media and ‘experts’ come to Egypt and speak mostly to Americans? There are many hundreds of thousands of Egyptian Americans, with many experts among them, but they have not been broadly drawn into discussions by the Obama Administration.
Enter General Suleiman. He is not liked by some of the key generals. And they have told Mubarak, hands off the army. Additionally, his lengthy address to the nation was seen as menacing by protesters. It had a number of subtle threats. So what is the extent of Suleman’s authority?
About Astley Henry
Astley leverages his research expertise to help both public and private sector organisations better understand the people they wish to serve. He is especially interested in policy evaluation and market research. Connect with me on Google+
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Wow, touching article. Gosh the world is so upside down sometimes! What’s more scary though is how the media uses moments like this to target the world, to focus everyone on another topic, so that they don’t think about other issues… Like the war in iraq for example…
So true. We just have to remain aware. Thanks for stopping by.
p.s Thanks for the photography compliments
First I want to thank you for summing up this entire Egyptian event in laymans terms. It makes more sense now that I read your post. This is one reason I can’t get into political discussions with people, I don’t understand half the rhetoric I hear on the news.
I’ve always thought when there’s a protest of let’s say 10 to 20K people, it’s usually because someone got their panties in a twist about chocolate not being quite the quality or they want orange to be the primary color of cars, but when you have a demonstration with over half your country there, you maybe want to take some notice. I think this has be brewing for years. Citizens can only take so much. And I really do believe American needs to keep their sticky little fingers out of everyone else’s pie. Keep an eye on the situation, but just let it happen. Believe me, if they need help we’re the first they’ll come to. I don’t say that with egotism either. Reporters probably only spoke to Americans because Obama was so silent and everyone wanted to know “what does America think?”. Does it matter? Let’s let these countries work it out for themselves. You know, cut the apron ties. We have enough problems here. We don’t need to take on anyone elses.
Great post!
I agree with you. Thanks so much for visiting!